The MLB draft is a couple months away (July 11-13, to be exact), and our own John Dreker will keep you up to date on prospects for the Pirates #1 overall pick, whether it’s Jack Leiter, Jordan Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Marcelo Mayer or, if you believe Keith Law, Henry Davis.
This draft article won’t provide any news, analysis or projections. Rather, this is a quick, high-level look at the 55-year history of the MLB draft — with some focus on the Pirates and Pennsylvania — so that you can wow your friends with useless information at social gatherings (on Zoom, of course).
An Abbreviated History
The First-Year Player Draft — also called the Rule 4 Draft, because of its placement in the MLB rule book — debuted on June 8, 1965, in New York City, as a way to limit bonus payouts to unproven players and reward underperforming teams with top picks.
The Kansas City Athletics used the first overall pick on OF Rick Monday, who went on to play 19 seasons and appear in two All-Star games.
With the 10th overall pick, the Pirates, led by GM Joe Brown and former-manager-turned assistant Danny Murtaugh, selected Doug “Wayne” Dickerson, a high school outfielder from Birmingham, AL, who played five seasons but never made it above A ball.
It wasn’t until the selection of RHP Bob Moose in the 18th round that the Pirates drafted a player who would appear in the majors. In all, Pittsburgh made 41 selections, signed 28 and saw 6 make it to the majors — the best of which was SS Freddie Patek (24.1 bWAR across 14 seasons) in the 22nd round.
Pirates: Struggling to Set Sail Since 1965
Since that inauspicious start, the Pirate drafts have been a bit more … auspicious. But only a bit. Of the 2,298 players drafted by Pittsburgh since 1965, 319 have made the majors, according to BaseballSavant. That’s a success rate of 13.9%, which ranks 22nd in baseball. (The average is 14.5%.) Here are the numbers for all current franchises:
| TEAM |
DRAFT PICKS |
REACHED MLB |
CONVERSION |
| Boston Red Sox |
1,939 |
341 |
17.6% |
| San Diego Padres |
1,956 |
320 |
16.4% |
| Los Angeles Angels |
2,142 |
345 |
16.1% |
| Texas Rangers |
2,309 |
364 |
15.8% |
| Oakland A’s |
2,111 |
328 |
15.5% |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
2,312 |
352 |
15.2% |
| Toronto Blue Jays |
1,951 |
296 |
15.2% |
| Chicago White Sox |
2,125 |
320 |
15.1% |
| San Francisco Giants |
2,277 |
342 |
15.0% |
| New York Yankees |
2,465 |
369 |
15.0% |
| Minnesota Twins |
2,278 |
340 |
14.9% |
| New York Mets |
2,395 |
357 |
14.9% |
| Cleveland Indians |
2,301 |
337 |
14.6% |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
1,220 |
178 |
14.6% |
| Seattle Mariners |
1,959 |
278 |
14.2% |
| Detroit Tigers |
2,230 |
315 |
14.1% |
| Washington Nationals |
2,169 |
306 |
14.1% |
| Atlanta Braves |
2,292 |
323 |
14.1% |
| Baltimore Orioles |
2,239 |
314 |
14.0% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
2,477 |
346 |
14.0% |
| Kansas City Royals |
2,250 |
314 |
14.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
2,298 |
319 |
13.9% |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
2,129 |
295 |
13.9% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
1,162 |
158 |
13.6% |
| Chicago Cubs |
2,237 |
303 |
13.5% |
| Colorado Rockies |
1,350 |
182 |
13.5% |
| Houston Astros |
2,311 |
310 |
13.4% |
| Cincinnati Reds |
2,244 |
301 |
13.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
2,064 |
274 |
13.3% |
| Miami Marlins |
1,442 |
159 |
11.0% |
| TOTAL |
62,634 |
9,086 |
14.5% |
Worth noting that these numbers and the chart below represent players drafted who made the majors, no matter if they were signed by the original drafting team or which team called them up to the majors. For example, the Pirates drafted RHP Walker Buehler in 2012 but didn’t sign him. He was later drafted, signed, developed and promoted by the Dodgers. Both the Pirates and Dodgers get credit for Buehler above.
Not coincidentally, in the last 54 years of the draft before the pandemic-shortened season, the Pirates have averaged the 15th most wins in baseball — not too far off from their draft conversion ranking. The Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox are at the top, while the Marlins are last in average wins per season, which supports (but doesn’t confirm) the idea that small market teams really need to draft and develop successfully.
Light Tailwinds Since 2010
The Pirates have fared a bit better over the last decade, ranking 10th among all franchises with 12.7% of its draftees making the majors (so far). The average is 11.7%, with Ben Cherington and Assistant GM Steve Sanders’ former team, the Blue Jays, sitting on top with 14.4%. (That last sentence is the most interesting nugget of information in this entire article.)
| TEAM |
DRAFT PICKS |
REACHED MLB |
CONVERSION |
| Toronto Blue Jays |
439 |
63 |
14.4% |
| Boston Red Sox |
430 |
60 |
14.0% |
| New York Yankees |
424 |
57 |
13.4% |
| Kansas City Royals |
429 |
56 |
13.1% |
| New York Mets |
425 |
55 |
12.9% |
| Cleveland Indians |
429 |
55 |
12.8% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
430 |
55 |
12.8% |
| Texas Rangers |
431 |
55 |
12.8% |
| Houston Astros |
431 |
55 |
12.8% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
432 |
55 |
12.7% |
| Colorado Rockies |
432 |
54 |
12.5% |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
442 |
55 |
12.4% |
| Seattle Mariners |
422 |
52 |
12.3% |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
425 |
52 |
12.2% |
| Minnesota Twins |
428 |
52 |
12.1% |
| San Diego Padres |
438 |
52 |
11.9% |
| Cincinnati Reds |
429 |
49 |
11.4% |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
437 |
49 |
11.2% |
| Washington Nationals |
421 |
46 |
10.9% |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
415 |
45 |
10.8% |
| San Francisco Giants |
425 |
46 |
10.8% |
| Chicago Cubs |
426 |
46 |
10.8% |
| Detroit Tigers |
418 |
45 |
10.8% |
| Atlanta Braves |
427 |
44 |
10.3% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
434 |
44 |
10.1% |
| Oakland A’s |
431 |
43 |
10.0% |
| Chicago White Sox |
422 |
42 |
10.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels |
422 |
41 |
9.7% |
| Baltimore Orioles |
426 |
41 |
9.6% |
| Florida Marlins |
430 |
41 |
9.5% |
| TOTAL |
12,850 |
1,505 |
11.7% |
A more thorough data analysis would look at WAR (as opposed to MLB conversion) for franchise draftees, but putting that together is a bigger project than I’m ready to tackle right now.
Draftees by Position
Since 1965, 51% of all players drafted were pitchers. (Though some, like Pirates 2001 first rounder John Van Benschoten, probably shouldn’t have been drafted as pitchers.) Nearly 19% were outfielders, and at the bottom of the list were second basemen, at just over 4%.
But perhaps scouting directors have had it wrong. As you can see below, drafted second basemen make it to the majors 17.5% of the time, tops among all positions. Conversely, shortstops get the call only 8.2% of the time (just about every mildly athletic alpha is a shortstop on their high school varsity squad), according to BaseballSavant.
| POSITION |
DRAFT PICKS |
REACHED MLB |
CONVERSION |
| P |
32,029 |
4,955 |
15.5% |
| C |
5,941 |
708 |
11.9% |
| 1B |
3,290 |
504 |
15.3% |
| 2B |
2,643 |
463 |
17.5% |
| SS |
4,015 |
331 |
8.2% |
| 3B |
2,852 |
461 |
16.2% |
| OF |
11,864 |
1,420 |
12.0% |
Draftees by State
Unsurprisingly, players from three states dominate the draft: California, Texas and Florida. The Golden State is the runaway producer of amateur baseball talent, in part because of its size and weather, but also because of some strong college programs (USC, for example, has won the most college baseball titles in NCAA history).
Pennsylvania fares pretty well, especially for a cold-weather state. With 446 draft picks, it has produced the 10th most selections, more than several states that you might expect to be higher, such as North Carolina.
The Pirates have followed the trend, selecting 174 players from California, 104 from Texas and 85 from Florida. Which state is fourth? Pennsylvania. The Pirates have stayed in-state with 48 draft picks.
|
STATE |
DRAFT PICKS |
% OF PICKS |
| California |
2,858 |
18.6% |
| Texas |
1,612 |
10.5% |
| Florida |
1,328 |
8.6% |
|
Illinois |
617 |
4.0% |
| Georgia |
541 |
3.5% |
| New York |
531 |
3.5% |
| Ohio |
471 |
3.1% |
| Pennsylvania |
446 |
2.9% |
| North Carolina |
392 |
2.5% |
| New Jersey |
374 |
2.4% |
| Washington |
356 |
2.3% |
| Tennessee |
329 |
2.1% |
| Arizona |
328 |
2.1% |
| Virginia |
326 |
2.1% |
| Louisiana |
314 |
2.0% |
| Alabama |
297 |
1.9% |
| Missouri |
294 |
1.9% |
| Oklahoma |
293 |
1.9% |
| Michigan |
285 |
1.9% |
| Indiana |
274 |
1.8% |
| Massachusetts |
254 |
1.7% |
| Colorado |
221 |
1.4% |
| South Carolina |
215 |
1.4% |
|
Mississippi |
199 |
1.3% |
| Kentucky |
182 |
1.2% |
| Minnesota |
172 |
1.1% |
| Kansas |
170 |
1.1% |
| Maryland |
156 |
1.0% |
| Oregon |
154 |
1.0% |
| Wisconsin |
149 |
1.0% |
| Iowa |
147 |
1.0% |
| Connecticut |
140 |
0.9% |
| Nevada |
133 |
0.9% |
|
Arkansas |
117 |
0.8% |
| Utah |
105 |
0.7% |
| Nebraska |
89 |
0.6% |
| New Mexico |
77 |
0.5% |
|
Hawaii |
71 |
0.5% |
| Idaho |
53 |
0.3% |
| West Virginia |
48 |
0.3% |
| New Hampshire |
36 |
0.2% |
|
Rhode Island |
35 |
0.2% |
| South Dakota |
35 |
0.2% |
| Delaware |
34 |
0.2% |
| Montana |
31 |
0.2% |
| North Dakota |
23 |
0.1% |
| Alaska |
21 |
0.1% |
| Maine |
20 |
0.1% |
| Wyoming |
13 |
0.1% |
| Vermont |
10 |
0.1% |
The Pirates’ First Rounders
The Pirates have had 69 first-round picks in 55 years, due to a number of compensation picks. The full list of players is below, but here are some notes:
- Of the 69 picks, 43 were from high school and 26 were from college — including one junior college draftee, C Jon Farrell in 1991. The Pirates selected high school players with their first 16 first-round picks. They have been more balanced of late, with 5 high school and 5 college players in the last 10 years.
- The Pirates have picked 26 pitchers, 6 catchers, 3 first basemen, 0 second basemen (though that’s where Nick Gonzales will likely end up), 14 shortstops, 3 third basemen and 17 outfielders.
- 3 picks didn’t sign with Pittsburgh: 1) RHP Mark Appel in 2012 (which turned into OF Austin Meadows the next year); 2) LHP Nick Lodolo (now a top prospect with the Reds) in 2016, and 3) RHP Gunnar Hoglund (who should be a first-rounder this year) in 2018.
- 39 of 69 have made it to the majors, a 57% conversion rate.
- By bWAR (the chart below comes from Baseball-Reference), Barry Bonds is by far their best first-round draft pick, at 162.7, followed by Andrew McCutchen (44.3), Jason Kendall (41.7) and Richie Hebner (33). Gerrit Cole is at 27.7 bWAR and is still going strong. And despite having the lowest bWAR of any Pirates’ first rounder, some old school scouts swear Chad Hermansen (-3.6) will eventually figure things out and climb this list. #nevergiveup
| YEAR |
PICK |
PLAYER |
POS |
bWAR |
SCHOOL |
| 2020 |
7 |
Nick Gonzales | SS | New Mexico State University | |
| 2020 |
31 |
Carmen Mlodzinski | P | University of South Carolina | |
| 2019 |
18 |
Quinn Priester | P | Cary-Grove HS | |
| 2019 |
37 |
Sammy Siani | CF | William Penn Charter School | |
| 2018 |
10 |
Travis Swaggerty | OF | University of South Alabama | |
| 2018 |
36 |
Gunnar Hoglund | RHP | Fivay HS | |
| 2017 |
12 |
Shane Baz | RHP | Concordia Lutheran HS | |
| 2016 |
22 |
Will Craig | 3B |
-0.1 |
Wake Forest University |
| 2016 |
41 |
Nick Lodolo | LHP | Damien HS | |
| 2015 |
19 |
Kevin Newman | SS |
1.4 |
University of Arizona |
| 2015 |
32 |
Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B |
2 |
Concordia Lutheran HS |
| 2014 |
24 |
Cole Tucker | SS |
-0.8 |
Mountain Pointe HS |
| 2014 |
39 |
Connor Joe | OF |
-0.1 |
University of San Diego |
| 2013 |
9 |
Austin Meadows | CF |
4.1 |
Grayson HS |
| 2013 |
14 |
Reese McGuire | C |
0.8 |
Kentwood HS |
| 2012 |
8 |
Mark Appel | RHP | Stanford University | |
| 2012 |
45 |
Barrett Barnes | OF | Texas Tech University | |
| 2011 |
1 |
Gerrit Cole | RHP |
27.7 |
University of California, Los Angeles |
| 2010 |
2 |
Jameson Taillon | RHP |
8.2 |
The Woodlands HS |
| 2009 |
4 |
Tony Sanchez | C |
0.1 |
Boston College |
| 2009 |
49 |
Vic Black | RHP |
0.5 |
Dallas Baptist University |
| 2008 |
2 |
Pedro Alvarez | 3B |
5 |
Vanderbilt University |
| 2007 |
4 |
Daniel Moskos | LHP |
0.2 |
Clemson University |
| 2006 |
4 |
Brad Lincoln | RHP |
0.4 |
University of Houston |
| 2005 |
11 |
Andrew McCutchen | OF |
44.3 |
Fort Meade HS |
| 2004 |
11 |
Neil Walker | C |
19.6 |
Pine-Richland HS |
| 2003 |
8 |
Paul Maholm | LHP |
11.9 |
Mississippi State University |
| 2002 |
1 |
Bryan Bullington | RHP |
-0.2 |
Ball State University |
| 2001 |
8 |
John Van Benschoten | RHP |
-3.5 |
Kent State University |
| 2000 |
19 |
Sean Burnett | LHP |
5.9 |
Wellington Community HS |
| 1999 |
8 |
Bobby Bradley | RHP | Wellington Community HS | |
| 1998 |
15 |
Clint Johnston | LHP | Vanderbilt University | |
| 1997 |
8 |
J.J. Davis | 1B |
-1.3 |
Baldwin Park HS |
| 1996 |
1 |
Kris Benson | RHP |
12.8 |
Clemson University |
| 1995 |
10 |
Chad Hermansen | SS |
-3.6 |
Green Valley HS |
| 1994 |
11 |
Mark Farris | SS | Angleton HS | |
| 1993 |
22 |
Charles Peterson | OF | Laurens District 55 HS | |
| 1993 |
34 |
Jermaine Allensworth | OF |
-0.1 |
Purdue University |
| 1993 |
42 |
Charles Rice | 1B | Parker HS | |
| 1992 |
23 |
Jason Kendall | C |
41.7 |
Torrance HS |
| 1992 |
33 |
Shon Walker | OF | Harrison County HS | |
| 1991 |
24 |
Jon Farrell | C | Florida State College at Jacksonville | |
| 1990 |
5 |
Kurt Miller | RHP |
-2.6 |
West HS |
| 1990 |
27 |
Mike Zimmerman | RHP | University of South Alabama | |
| 1989 |
18 |
Willie Greene | SS |
3.1 |
Jones County HS |
| 1988 |
13 |
Austin Manahan | SS | Horizon HS | |
| 1987 |
2 |
Mark Merchant | OF | Oviedo HS | |
| 1986 |
1 |
Jeff King | SS |
16.9 |
University of Arkansas |
| 1985 |
6 |
Barry Bonds | OF |
162.7 |
Arizona State University |
| 1984 |
15 |
Kevin Andersh | LHP | University of New Mexico | |
| 1983 |
12 |
Ron DeLucchi | OF | Campolindo HS | |
| 1982 |
7 |
Sam Khalifa | SS |
0.9 |
Sahuaro HS |
| 1981 |
14 |
Jim Winn | RHP |
-1.3 |
John Brown University |
| 1980 |
20 |
Rick Renteria | SS |
-0.5 |
South Gate HS |
| 1978 |
19 |
Brad Garnett | 1B | DeSoto HS | |
| 1978 |
21 |
Jerry Aubin | OF | Dougherty HS | |
| 1977 |
18 |
Anthony Nicely | OF | Meadowdale HS | |
| 1976 |
21 |
Jim Parke | RHP | Henry Ford II HS | |
| 1975 |
20 |
Dale Berra | SS |
5.5 |
Montclair HS |
| 1974 |
11 |
Rod Scurry | LHP |
5.6 |
Hug HS |
| 1973 |
24 |
Steve Nicosia | C |
1.1 |
North Miami Beach HS |
| 1972 |
23 |
Dwayne Peltier | SS | Servite HS | |
| 1971 |
22 |
Craig Reynolds | SS |
13.1 |
Regan HS |
| 1970 |
13 |
John Bedard | RHP | Springfield Tech HS | |
| 1969 |
10 |
John Morlan | RHP |
0 |
Merritt Island HS |
| 1968 |
9 |
Dick Sharon | OF |
0.6 |
Sequoia HS |
| 1967 |
16 |
Joe Grigas | OF | Coyle HS | |
| 1966 |
15 |
Richie Hebner | SS |
33 |
Norwood HS |
| 1965 |
10 |
Wayne Dickerson | OF | Ensley HS |
Additional Reading
I was going to include a chart showing MLB conversion of both high school and college players since 1965, but that data doesn’t readily exist without a mind-numbing compilation of data from The Baseball Cube. (If you see it out on the interwebs, let me know.) But in researching what’s out there, I came across a few MLB draft stories that were worth sharing, if you want to have even more useless knowledge in your bat bag:
- Back in 2017, Neil Payne at FiveThirtyEight did a version of what I was looking for, looking at high school vs. college player success, as well as the value of various picks. The article focuses on the evolution of draft picks since the sabermetric community made inroads into front offices.
- This is a fun study that shows the value of turning pro out of high school as opposed to going to college. The difference in earnings is pretty stark for top draft picks, but flips after the 11th round. The study is from 2007, so it would be interesting to see if the sabermetric revolution has changed things at all.
- And if you really want to geek out after your lunch hour quidditch game, you can dig into this study (in PDF form) on whether relative age effects (RAEs) result in MLB draft bias. The most fascinating part about this research is that someone actually took the time to do it.
